Forum Post: You can Shut-up about how violent society is today as compared to the past - we are at a 50 year low in the number of homicides.
Posted 11 years ago on Feb. 2, 2013, 3:26 p.m. EST by DKAtoday
(33802)
from Coon Rapids, MN
This content is user submitted and not an official statement
One thing to make note of however - the major spikes - one starts just after 1910 and runs to 1933 ( rate at 9.7 ) then it steadily drops till about 1958 ( rate at 4.5 ) start of another major spike that ends around 1990 rate at 10.0 ) and drops - the chart below ends at 2000 when the rate was 6.5 per 100,000 and now 2011 report says a continued drop to 4.8 per 100,000
The 1st major spike starts just before WWI ( 1914 ) and continues thru the Great Depression ( til 1933 ) the Dust Bowl and Prohibition ( ending 1939 )
The 2nd major spike starts just after the USA into the Vietnam War ( 1955 - 1974 ) increasing from a low of 4.5 in 1955 thru the start of the Drug War ( 1971 - ongoing ) reaching peak rate 10.7 in 1980 dropping to 8.4 in 1985 ( Gulf war 1990 - 1991) climbing again to 10.5 in 1991 at top of spike. 2nd spike drops off after 1993
Invasion of Afghanistan ( 2001 - ongoing) Invasion of Iraq ( 2003 - still involved ) Homicide rate for 2001 reported at 5.6 dropping to 4.7 or 4.8 in 2011
So there appears to be a statistical anomaly from 1993 to present date. Available information for 2000 - 2012 seems quite lacking. Prior history shows that we should still be in a major high homicide rate - but that is not what is being reported.
So what happened ( did not happen ) between 2000 and now that would account for this bewildering fact? I mean we got 2 wars ( and other actions undeclared ) we are still in the midst of a major economic meltdown 2008 - present day.
So - Where the hell is the corresponding violence? Where are all of the homicides. We see them reported on the Spews ( I mean news ) but the actual(?) data does not seem to be available.
Current reported rate seems very unlikely at a 4.7 or 4.8 per 100,000 for 2011.
Check out the homicide chart attached then look at the population figures. Population today is over twice the size of 1920 population. Looking at the chart and comparing population size - we are roughly in the same area as homicides go.
USA Homicide Rates polyticks.com/polyticks/beararms/liars/usa.htm Homicide Rates USA, 1900 - 1998 ... southern attempts at gun control in the 1870-1910 period, the northeastern attempts in the 1920-1939 period, the attempts ...
Be sure to note the really bad years and check your history books for what was going on.
Population:
Year = size of population
1920 = 106,022,000
1950 = 151,325,000
2010 = 281,422,000
Great Depression years = 1929–1939
Dust Bowl years = 1932-1935
Prohibition years = 1920-1933
REPORTED Homicide rate per hundred thousand :
4.8 in 2011
6.8 in 1920
8.8 in 1930
6.3 in 1940
6.4 in 1939
MSM colludes to scare the shit out of the population by running violent crime stories more often whether crime is up or down. If it bleeds it leads.
Its good for ratings to keep people scared. Keeps them watching. So does celebrity gossip which is also on the rise
To say the least. Reality shows, Sports everyday, concerts, and sports illustrated swimsuits/victorias secret models. the circuses in Bread & Circuses baby.
Empire of Illusion
The End of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle
A great book, and a sad truth.
I will look for it. We are informing more people everyday. Do not lose hope. We need your uncompromising anti war, pro 99% pressure.
thanks for the good words!
And thank you for your inspiring positions. It is principled people like you who have forced this government to cut the drone strikes in half over the last 2 years. And it is your kind of unwavering pressure that will force them to finally end these criminal acts. much kudos, and support. Don't stop.
Again thank you for the inspiring words. Together we can all make a difference.
But with the homicides being reported on a daily basis - it just does not seem to support a 4.8 per 100,000 per year homicide rate at this point in time. Looking at past history and events and records of the times and then comparing them to now - it does not make sense - and that only cries out for attention because of all of the murders reported on a daily basis. Reported rate should ( in seeming ) be higher right now.
I hear you. the number of murders is large while the percent compared to population size is low. I'm sayin that the media has devoted more & more news time to violent reports while violent crime/murder has gone down over the last 20 years. Fear is a powerful tool to get support for anti 99% policies.
I would think that they would be playing it up rather than hide it. Except if they go reporting that we have 10 homicides per 100,000 ( or more ) - it really would scream sick society and failed leadership - due to the wars due to the economy ( meltdown criminal bastards ) non-living wage off-shored jobs - failed drug war ( prohibition ).
Well they play up violence even when violence is down for ratings & to keep us scared. Easier to control us I guess. And easier to get support for war on drugs, tough on crime laws & so forth.
No in this case I think they are withholding information to down play how fucked-up things actually are.
Really. If you say so. I always saw the news as salacious, gratuitous, ratings whores.
There is always that - but they play to a bigger game of distraction/manipulation then the it bleeds it leads mantra. They are in the game of manipulation - and if they show how bad that their rented government is - well - they will have to rent a whole new government.
I hear ya. insidious.
Wheels in wheels in wheels all turning to different as well as related intents. No wonder they continually shoot themselves in the foot - well - to those who are paying attention anyway.
We are going to turn right now like a wheel inside a wheel. I do so try to explain my thoughts and a few years ago was MUCH better at it. 38 years of dedication to occupy ideals has taken a toll on me I suppose to admit it's effect can only bring results cause coming across can not get much worse according to you reading. How MSM does the news working this with that the other and thru is within our reach of operating too. In a post I explained that instead of money getting my brain has been working all these years I am more capable than you might think for helping these things to become reality to me they already are.
Not being sarcastic, but I doubt Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans, etc.. care what the crime rate was in 1930. They have all they can do handle the hundreds of murders that occur today.
Sorry I posted early and have been editing till just now. There is an apparent anomaly in the gathered/reported information. A reported 4.8 per 100,000 does not seem to be possible in 2011 but that is what is reported. I fully expected to see an increase trending up after 2001 and a further spike after 2008.
It leads me to think that we have not gotten accurate information since around 1993.
The main point I was trying to make with this post - is that we are not more violent today then we were in our past history ( recent past WWI Great Depression prohibition WWII Vietnam ).
Overall, We're probably less violent. It may seem like more because everything is covered in the news these days.
Economic circumstances are very similar - only now with a larger population - and I think more of the young seeing little future.
Gee, I am so relived that this is a problem we don't have to worry about anymore. Why should we be worrying about 30,000 plus deaths a year?
We lost 10% of that number in 2001 and we committed to spending $3.5 trillion, gave up many of our rights to unreasonable searches etc., committed to lose three times that many lives of our military to prevent losing any more in that highly improbable way.
Did I hear that women are 25 times more likely to be shot by a spouse or boy friend than by an intruder? We might know more interesting facts if the NRA/GOP combine didn't prevent the gathering of available and relevant in formation by the CDC. Like how many kids are injured or killed by guns brought into the home by family or "friends"?
"In the United States 57% of suicides involve the use of firearms with this method being somewhat more common in men than women. The next most common cause was hanging in males and self poisoning in females."
Drs who won't use check lists cause 100,000 deaths each year.
There are lots of things that you can (and have the right to) do that you really shouldn't do. It is weird that we have a culture that encourages people to do those things that are bad, risky, harmful to others, and stupid? We certainly are exceptional aren't we?
We sure have a strange set of priorities.
Agreed - but it is not so much priorities as it is screwed-up/misinformed/misdirected perceptions.
Chase the symptoms people - don't go after the source - the disease vector. Nope don't wanna go there as that would be messing with TPTB.
No, it is priorities. There is enough information that people who are interested in informing their prioritiy choices can find find enough. But not looking for the information is a choice of priority, as well. If a doufus like me can find them, reasonably smart, reasonable people could as well. The would prefer to go to church, listen to the radio, read their favorite blog, listen to their boss, to be told what to believe, what to value, what to ignore.
You are responsible for what you believe.
I have been thinking about the carry issue. What if "concealed carry" went away? Then people with guns could set their priorities about the order in which to shoot people. Isn't that information they should have? It also would reduce the risks to unarmed folks. If you feel safer with the gun crowd you can join them if you feel safer with the non gun crowd you can join them?
Gun ownership or non-ownership - you are correct a wrong priority - I think it is also correct as a mis-perception that is purposely hyped as a distraction from the real issues causing the rise in gun violence - violence in general.
Be distracted by a symptom people not by the cause of that symptom - a sick and failing society.
Just thought of something relating to illegal immigrants: Two years ago an illegal immig. drunk driver who had about 3 priors or more on his record, killed two young girls at a stop light. The day before this, the judge dropped other charges and released him.
How and why did this happen? As it turns out, the illegal had no driver's license but the judge suspended his non-existent license anyway ( more than once). Apparently, the justice system does not work if the perp does not have legal documentation to support the bureaucratic process. Of course, the parents of the girls were outraged and have since advocated for serious reform. ( and how about some commonsense from those highly educated judges?).
VIRGINIA BEACH - Two teenagers were killed late Friday when a car plowed into the rear of their vehicle as they waited for a green light at an intersection. The driver of the other car was charged with manslaughter.
"It's tragic is all I can say," said Jimmy Barnes, a police spokesman.
The victims were 17-year Allison Kunhardt of the 700 block of Sir Walter Circle and 16-year-old Tessa Tranchant of the 4500 block of Genoa Circle.
"They were just sitting at the light, strapped in their seat belts," said Ray Tranchant, Tessa's father. "They were just doing what they were supposed to be doing."
Charged with two counts of involuntary manslaughter is Alfredo Ramos, 22, who gave his address to police as the 100 block of Trace Court, Barnes said. That address, just off Virginia Beach Boulevard, is less than two miles from the scene of the collision.
" The Hidden Side of Everything"...Freakonomics:
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/08/freakonomics-quorum-why-during-a-bad-economy-does-crime-continue-to-fall/
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/05/23/will-the-nfl-lockout-lead-to-increase-in-crime/
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/05/31/experts-continue-to-express-amazement-at-declining-crime/
I'm no expert on this topic for sure but one thing I have noticed in my immediate region is that every day I hear about at least one murder/homicide and yet at the end of the year, they only report 9 or ten? EVEN if there was only one murder every week, that would make at least 52, not ten. Makes no sense to me unless homicides are accounted for based on trial outcomes. For example, if a crime is reduced to a misdemeanor, manslaughter or some other charge, then maybe the homicide is no longer a murder stat.
I agree - it does not seem that actual numbers are being reported - I just posted a chart that shows the USA at a 2.6 - 5.9 per 100,000 homicide rate. Sliding scale I suppose for area of the states one might be in.
But with all of the homicides being reported locally then nationally - granted one only hears about NY or Chicago or LA on a regular basis - Still there is enough wide spread reports of homicides all over the place that makes one think that the reported rate per 100,000 should be higher than it is.
Under reporting would seem to be a factor - and re-categorizing has always been a statistics game - all depends on the picture you want to represent as to how the categorizing is tweaked.
Have you ever watched the PBS doc on coroners in the US? Coroners are one of the problems in under reporting.
I'm certain there is a hidden agenda in most statistical reporting. For instance, if a state wants to increase or decrease it's police force and funding. Someone is always pulling our strings.
Yep - the funding/resource game. So - if one has the patience and access as well as an idea of where to look - one can find all kinds of conflicting reports - all depending on the audience it is aimed at.
That's why it's best DK to just stick with Nancy Grace and her ONE breaking news story that lasts several weeks to months.
lol - huh? R U saying that most news is just fluff and picture and sound bites?
I never said such a thang!
HR Puffnstuff..he's your friend when things get rough HR Puffnstuff...can't do a little cuz you can't do enough hahahha
OMG - HR Puffnstuff ? lol - sorry - but - I M O - he and Barney ought to be sent off to some lonely uninhabited island.
Send me with them! I've always been secretly in love with Puff. I think it's his dark sad eyes. Does that qualify me for mental illness disability?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obxfuFrUTzg
aAHhahahahaha - no - though it may mean you could be at risk if attending a kids program. Risk of being syrupy sweet with an affected/pronounced nasal singing voice.
I lub you, you lub me, weere a happee fam i lee........;D I called my friend earlier and when she answered the phone I sprang into Puffn verse. I barely got through it but it made her day. Ever occur to you why those neo hippies named him Puffnstuff? You don't suppose he was toking do you?
I'm ready for the Banana Splits now ;D
Puffnstuff - a toker's dream - That was my very 1st thought. OH I am glad I was not a child when that stuff hit the air.
I had heard that the H.R. stood for "home-rolled," but it could just be another urban legend.
For shits and giggles - review puff the magic dragon. G-Night.
[-] 2 points by gnomunny (4250) from St Louis, MO 0 minutes ago
I, like you, was too old to actually watch the show, but from what I heard . . .
Home-rolled puffin' stuff? I wonder if the internet has the answer, hmm?
Anyway, gotta sign off after checking your other reply on the other thread. ↥twinkle ↧stinkle permalink
No no - I think an extended joke played on the prohibitionists. {:-])
Home rolled sounds perfect.
I, like you, was too old to actually watch the show, but from what I heard . . .
Home-rolled puffin' stuff? I wonder if the internet has the answer, hmm?
Anyway, gotta sign off after checking your other reply on the other thread.
the murder rate in the u.s. is still of the charts for a first world nation.
One would think so - and yet there are these types of charts out there that seem to say otherwise.
Current Worldwide Homicide/Murder Rate
how do you figure that map does not show america behind other 1st world nations we are a different color than canada, japan, austrailia or europe.
Different color so slightly different rate - but really a difference of 3.29 per 100,000 is huge?
BTW - according to my figuring - our ( USA ) reported homicide rate should likely be a lot higher like 10.0 per 100,000 - then yep the chart would show us as way the fuck out of place with real civilized ( modern ) wealthy nations.
Our society is deathly ill and failing - and it is being UN-reported or misreported/misrepresented.
The Pediatricians vs. the NRA How the gun lobby is trying to gag doctors from talking about kids and guns
I saw this article discussed on another forum. The consensus was it was none of the doctors business if they owned guns. Some thought a doctor asking if a patient if he had a gun was just information gathering for the government.
I’m not sure what I’d do if a doctor asked me if I had a gun. Just seems like an odd question to ask. I probably would be suspicious. I think I’d ask why he was asking and go from there.
Thanks for the article.
But what are you saying?
They don't talk about drone missiles or other military ordinance tearing up children into little itty bitty pieces overseas either.
I'm sorry. I thought I was aiding and abetting.
Nyuck. Nyuck. Nyuck.
Sorry myself - I read further into the story and the NRA is just as Bad as the government about arms and insanity and destroying innocent lives. To think to tell a Dr that she/he has no business advising patients/parents about safety considerations - is - just - BIZARRE.
You know that is a site that supports John Lott and his stats?
Pro gun individual? John Lott ? Hmmm makes ya wonder about the game being played.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lott#Mary_Rosh_persona
http://polyticks.com/polyticks/beararms/liars/moreguns.htm
aAHahahaha sounds like a certain unmentionable forum troll aAHahahaha
OMG - Really??? what an insane idiot. Though probably popular with the NRA for the Book.
http://polyticks.com/polyticks/beararms/liars/moreguns.htm
I could just see reported daily death tolls because every idiot in society was carrying a gun. Hell some of em might shoot themselves to say - put out a fire if their pants were burning.
http://reason.com/archives/2003/05/01/the-mystery-of-mary-rosh
http://www.newrepublic.com/blog/plank/111263/meet-john-lott-the-man-who-wants-teachers-carry-guns
That is the enemy.
Ya Know? I was required to take some creative writing courses when I was in school. Perhaps I should have paid more attention - seems like a growing lucrative business these days - though I don't think it is how my teachers would have envisioned it.
http://www.newrepublic.com/blog/plank/111263/meet-john-lott-the-man-who-wants-teachers-carry-guns
Piers Morgan? Haven't they deported him Yet?
Not yet. They are working on it, though.
Maybe they could send some close friends along to keep him company.
John Lott
Rushing Limpballs
Boner
Bitch McConnell
Can'tor
O'Bachmann ( Letterman naming )
The Hairy Reed
OH - Who else - there is a mess of em
Maybe its just the music is more violent these days, and therefore feels more violent. But I would really need to see some stats from something a bit more relevant.
Polytick? Really?
Tell ya what, tell grandma if she is safer traveling from one side of Rochester to the other now vs 1950. Lets get the reaction.
Take a look for yourself. There are plenty of sources to check the reported rates - but not many charts. You will find reporting s within a plus or minus .2% That is till you come up-towards 2000.
Ok, so what are the causes? Because we clearly are seeing a breakdown of society in general. So what is causing the decrease in crime?
Police state? Pills?
Under-reporting - non-reporting.
I was kind of wondering about that.
When you look at circumstances - historical - compare past to the present - there is no other reasoning for the difference - some might say social safety net - I would say too many have fallen through the net to make that a valid argument.
Valid reasoning would point to trying to keep the population somewhat sedate - and so - not in a deserved uproar.
Someone told me the other day that if instead of the food stamp program, we had the bread lines and the soup kitchens and the church pantries, it would be either massive chaos or people would find another gear and things would change.
I think that TPTB have done a masterful job keeping the population calm as it keeps getting worse.
Yes - masterful - to this point in time - well actually a year ago ( perhaps a little more ) - then the shit really hit the fan - now they are running around like chickens with their heads cut of - because they have so many huge and ongoing failures to try to distract attention away from.
Here's what's missing from your info: demographics. Consider this: I checked a minute ago trying to come up with some more info for you and saw a chart from 2009 that had the rate of homicides by age group. The age group 18 - 24 was by far the age group that committed the most homicides in 2009. That's not surprising, but what you would need to get 'the big picture' are more stats.
Consider that first spike. Couples in the 19th century, for example, had far more children than couples do now. That could suggest a LOT more 18-24 year olds (or whatever the age group was back then doing the most killing) being around for the first spike.
Check that second big spike which began in the early '60's. That's when the first 'boomers' were entering that 18-24 year old age group.
Conversely, we have an aging population now, i.e., less 18-24 year olds (assuming again the same age group is responsible), and that would account for the drop since 1990.
So what's missing are more stats.
Hmmm thats interesting..
Yes actual real numbers. Because there a whole lot of young kids on the street today - more then back in the GR8 D and there are more kids looking to make a buck then back then - due to lack of employment and lack of a living wage.
If I was to make a guess, I'd say that the graph will probably start moving back up pretty soon.
As an example of that first spike, I've been doing some genealogy research on and off lately and on my mom's side, her two sets of grandparents had 30 kids between the four of them, 17 on one side, 13 on the other. 24 lived to adulthood. The first boys born (one each side) were born in 1884 and 1893, so they would have been hitting their teens during that first spike.
Not saying they ever murdered anyone. Jus' sayin' ;-)
Demographics are a bit different - but it is basically the young - 12 to 40 - who get into the active violence - has a lot to do with hormone activity - higher activity in that range - 12 starting out and 40 starting to tail off. So the volatile age group.
Oh yeah, we both know that, eh?
Kinda missing that demographic myself. ;-)
LOL - yeah for me more around 18 for having a good time physically and time to do stuff - after that not so much - on-set of the mega work hours on the mega work weeks.
[-] 2 points by gnomunny (4210) from St Louis, MO 0 minutes ago
Oh, I agree with what you're saying. I meant that I, personally, would rather be 34 than 54, not talking about the demographic in general. I was having a pretty good time when I was 34. Now, not so much. ↥twinkle ↧stinkle permalink
Well, since you put it that way, I'd be willing to push my original comment back another ten years. Early twenties was the best for me. We didn't do a lot of overtime (union roofer), so I had plenty of time for living. And I didn't sleep much, four or five hours a night usually. Didn't you once say you did a lot of overtime?
It's when the blood runs hot - so - yeah starting around 12 and tailing off after 40. Age of doing assaults on all age groups? Closer to 18 to 40. 12 would be more of a peer group bully or random killer.
[-] 2 points by gnomunny (4210) from St Louis, MO 9 minutes ago
Well, not 12. I was thinking a little closer to 40. I'd much rather be 34 than 54. But that's just me. ↥twinkle ↧stinkle permalink
Oh, I agree with what you're saying. I meant that I, personally, would rather be 34 than 54, not talking about the demographic in general. I was having a pretty good time when I was 34. Now, not so much.
Really? Or you just messin with me.
Well, not 12. I was thinking a little closer to 40. I'd much rather be 34 than 54. But that's just me.
When the crime rate rises, it is used as justification for increased incarceration
When the crime rate is down, it is also used as justification that increased incarceration is working
What would happen if we all became really well-behaved? Would the corporations running the private prisons be willing to accept a loss on their investement??
Or would sentences be lengthened again - even for victimless crimes?
And/or.... would more laws be written, so that more of them could be broken?
All this while the people who have caused untold human misery throughout the world get off scot-free, and get raises to boot.
~Odin~
BTW - I was kicked out of google at one point - when trying to get information past 1998 till now. Suddenly the server could not be found.
Even still, suicides are up 31% in the last 12 years. I just read this today in the NY Times, "In the same 12-year period, the total number of suicides in the country rose steadily to an estimated 105 a day in 2010, up from 80 in 1999, a 31 percent increase."
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/02/us/veterans-make-up-shrinking-percentage-of-suicides.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0
And the U.S. has far more gun related killings than any other developed country, so nothing to be proud of. No reason there to stop fighting for change.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2012/12/14/chart-the-u-s-has-far-more-gun-related-killings-than-any-other-developed-country/
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/12/us-gun-ownership-homicide-rate-higher-than-other-developed-countries/
Suicides go up in economic downturns and I bet a big part of the current increase is related to veterans home from the resource wars. (notwithstanding the times story you linked) Either way it's a big problem.
I agree.
this tragedy is so devastating. Good to see us cover it as we discuss gun issues. (a little too much gun talk for my tastes generally)
I'm tired of the whole gun thing too, but these new suicide numbers should not be dismissed. It is a very important indicator of the health, or lack of it, of our society.
Without a doubt.
Yes - prolonged stress with no relief in sight will push many people already struggling with depression over the edge. Now couple that thought with how many people are not being seen by a Dr for their depression - And ...
you have a society that needs a great deal of change....
Positive change - responsible leadership - accountable CRIMINALS
It's the drugs - people who are high don't shoot straight. You fail to mention that shootings are way up, at least quadruple the number of homicides; couple this with the fact that people in general are less familiar today with firearms and you're going to get far more survivors.
U R silly.
U had one point = "that shootings are way up"
The rest of your comment? Worthless.
No, it really is the truth; most of this is drug crime and they really are very poor shots - in other words, the fact that murders are down is not for want of trying, it's because they can't hit the target. You know, you also have to consider the demographics of crime here; minorities living in cities are simply not as well versed as white folk, in general, used to be - they commit most of the crime, most of the shootings related to crime, and they really are missing their targets. This is partly related to gun control; if they were permitted semi-autos they would undoubtedly practice far more.
So we don't need to bother about gun banning, do we? Except maybe Chicago..oh wait, they already have some of the strictest gun laws in the country.
MeatHead1 U still here?